The Singularity is near when man merges with machine and artificial intelligence surpasses the human mind. – Ray Kurzweil
The emergence of superintelligence is a singularity that would be like a black hole. We have no idea what’s on the other side. – Vernor Vinge
We’re rapidly approaching a technological singularity, where humankind itself may be radically transformed.- Elon Musk
SINGULARITY! Based on context You might have already got an intuition of what it is, but let’s make it more clear. Singularity, the technological singularity is a hypothetical event in which artificial intelligence (AI) surpasses human intelligence, triggering exponential growth in technology and leading to a future that is beyond our current comprehension. This concept was popularized by mathematician and computer scientist Vernor Vinge and further developed by futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil. So let me take you through a journey towards singularity. I will be referring to any computing device as computers henceforth.
It was not until late 20th century that computers started evolving rapidly. Semiconductors began to be used effectively, systems made compact and more powerful as industries simultaneously developed to produce finer structures with more accuracy, and also software engineering blossomed all around the globe. A prediction was made by Intel co-founder in mid 20th century that number of components per IC would double every two years. This prediction held true even till the late 20th century and hence it was converted to law. This co-founder is none other than Gordon E. Moore after whom this law is named as Moore’s law. You might be wondering what it has to do with Singularity!
Doubling of components in IC indirectly means computers getting powerful and it leads to an inference that on average computing power should be doubled every two years. The first computer based on IC (in the year 1959) could perform 500,000 cps. It’s been 64 years since then and based on Moore’s law, by now we must have achieved 2.147 x 1015 cps. Fun fact! ‘Human brain’s computation power is around 1015 cps. So technically if Moore’s Law were valid, today I wouldn’t be writing the blog, rather my avatar would be writing this, how funny! Evidently, Moore’s law failed in recent years as the most sophisticated brain which we could mimic till now is a rat brain. If Moore’s law had been sustained, we would already have reached singularity by the end of this decade. So why did More’s law fail in recent years?
An ideal Pentium chip today has a layer of almost 20 atoms across. In order to maintain Moore’s law, the size must go to as small as 5 atoms across. At that small size, one major problem is heat dissipation; the heat dissipated while it operates would be sufficient enough to melt the chip completely. Also as we know ICs are based on semiconductors that follow classical physics, when we go to the size of 5 atoms; quantum effects come into play which causes uncertainty due to effects like quantum tunneling in computation making it unreliable.
So what now? How are we going to attain singularity if computers aren’t supportive? Would we even attain? Questions like these may arise in your mind. Yes, these quantum effects and the limited abundance of Silicon have hampered growth but still, this is not the end! Soon we will enter the post-silicon era depending upon the pace of research and scalability of products developed.
Several technologies like Quantum Computing, 3d silicon transistors, protein computers, DNA computers, Optical Computers, molecular computers, etc are evolving to tackle this issue and increase computing speed. Also, research is being carried out on using carbon as a substitute for silicon owing to a similar valency configuration, which if gives scalable results would escalate the current technological scenario greatly.
There are several technologies that are contributing to the singularity equation, including artificial intelligence, robotics, biotechnology, and nanotechnology. Biotechnology is already being used to enhance human capabilities, such as gene editing and creating artificial organs. Nanotechnology is also being used to create materials and devices that are incredibly small and powerful, with potential applications in medicine, energy, and electronics. These technologies are evolving at an exponential rate, and their convergence could lead to a future where humans and machines merge, creating a new species that is beyond our current understanding.
What happens when we attain Singularity? In simple words, once singularity is attained, computers become self-aware and hence are capable of evolution. Unlike humans whose evolution is controlled by nature, the evolution of intelligent digital beings would be exponential and hence there would be an exponential runaway beyond any hope of control and can term it as post-human era where digital beings, human beings, and superior-human beings coexist; the term superior human being refers to human beings with nanotech and digital implantations in body and society.
So when can we experience that global state of technological singularity? How can we assume it’s about time? Are we ready to really cope with the effects following Singularity? Can human beings and digital beings really coexist or Survival of the fittest would eradicate humanity completely? Should we regulate the rate at which we are growing technologically? These are all the points to ponder on which various theoretical physicists have made several speculations and there are infinite possibilities. Signing off… do let me know what are your thoughts on these in the comments!
~ By Ravi Ram, Third Year Department of Artificial Intelligence